How things started
The ongoing Syrian civil war is the inevitable progression of the Arab Spring revolts ongoing in the middle east since winter 2011. Basically, nonviolent civilian protests ousted the Tunisian government (Tunisia is in N. Africa, to the left of Libya) when the Tunisian government allowed the protests to continue. The protestors essentially shut the country down until the government stepped down. Something similar happened in Egypt and several other countries.However, in the tiny country of Bahrain (an island next to Saudi Arabia), the government decided to violently repress the protestors. Violent repression in the Middle East is less riot police with gas and batons and more army/militia with machine guns on trucks. In Bahrain, the protestors dissipated after the government shot a bunch of people and made some token concessions. Most importantly, the government stayed in power.
So when the protests spread to Syria, the Syrian government, being a logical entity with an eye for self-preservation, started shooting protestors. Some people had a problem with this, namely the people being shot.
The problem
Because here's the thing: In geopolitics, really, it's OK to shoot people. You just have to do it in the right way, and you have to make sure you're shooting the right kind of people. Meaning, you have to look and act like you don't want to shoot people, and you have to shoot people who are LIKE YOU. It also helps to have powerful, friendly neighbors, but the real key is to act remorseful and make sure that it doesn't look like you're attacking a different group, be that ethnic, religious, whatever.The people
And that's why people had a problem with the Syrian government shooting people. See, for the last 40 years, Syria has been run by the Assad family (which doesn't matter), who are members of a sect of Shia Islam called Alawites (which matters a lot). The Alawaites are vastly outnumbered by members of Sunni Islam on the order of 6:1 in Syria. Sunnis generally have gotten a pretty raw deal in Syria over the last few decades; they're poorer, can't get government jobs, the whole works. And the Alawites haven't been particularly apologetic about that either; fuck it, they got theirs.Which meant when the Alawite Syrian government started shooting Sunni protestors and acting like they didn't give a shit that their troops were mowing down unarmed civilians, people got upset. And some of those people happened to be Sunnis who happened to be part of the Syrian military units shooting the protestors. Somewhere along the line, the outnumbered Alawites realized they couldn't hold onto power unless either every Alawite was part of the military, or they let Sunnis into the military. Lots of Sunnis joined the military (good), and were told to shoot other Sunnis (bad) so the Alawites could hold onto power (oh shit no you didn't).
A bunch of Sunni military types deserted their units and headed to Turkey (the country, not the food, directly North of Syria). A bunch of Sunni protestor types heard about this and went to meet up with them, and pretty soon you have the Free Syrian Army and the nominal Syrian National Council. Together, they declared that the Alawites were assholes, and should be removed from power in favor of a democracy (which the Sunnis would dominate because they outnumber the Alawites 6:1).
Outside influences
Now we have all the brewings of a good old fashioned civil war. And civil wars get all the regional powers and world powers all excited, because a civil war either means that their friend is getting evicted and replaced with someone they hate, or the people they hate are getting evicted and replaced by friends. The powers that get Friend +1 get a bonus compared to their own rivals, so it starts to smell a lot like proxy war in the morning.In this case, the Alawite Syrian government is good friends with Iran, because Iran's government is Shia, and good friends with Russia, because Syria lets Russia's military use the port of Tartus as a naval base. This is Russia's ONLY naval base in the Mediterranean, and they'd like to keep it.
The Sunni rebels, on the other hand, have good friends in Saudi Arabia because the Saudis are Sunni and like shitting on Iran whenever possible, and Qatar because the Qataris are also Sunni and have close ties with the USA, which likes shitting on Iran AND Russia whenever possible. I told you it smells like proxy war in here. There's also Turkey, which WAS friends with Syria's government until the Alawites started shelling Turkish border towns because they thought some Sunni protestors were hiding there. This done pissed off Turkey right quick.
Where things stand now
The result of all of these friendships and rivalries goes something like this:- Russia is sending the Syrian government lots of weapons and has told the UN Security Council (USA, UK, France, China, Russia; basically the countries you need to give you the thumbs up before you go invading someplace, lest you get the missiles) that there ain't nobody going to be invading, tactical-striking, or no-fly-zoning Syria on their watch. And just in case any country decides to interfere without UN Security Council approval (that would be the USA they're talking to), they've went and parked some military units with anti-aircraft missiles in Tartus and said they're going to go ahead and assume any non-Syrian military aircraft in Syrian airspace is on its way to attack the Russian base in Tartus and will be shot down. That last part bullshit and everybody knows it, but it's not like anyone's going to call them on it.
- Iran is sending a bunch of its favorite local and outsourced religious militias into Syria, along with a few handfuls of Iranian special forces (as "observers" *giant air quotes*). You may remember these guys as the ones who rode motorcycles into the Iranian protests a few years ago and shot/clubbed a bunch of students. Again, that was OK, because it was Shia on Shia violence, and Iran's government was really sorry it all got out of hand. In Syria, these Iranian militias are the ones going around burning houses while their owners are out protesting.
- Saudi Arabia and Qatar are holding nationwide pledge drives where for just $100 you can provide some poor oppressed brother Sunni with a used AK and a week's worth of ammunition. The Syrian government is finding lots and lots of weapons that seem like they were made in Saudi Arabia or Qatar, but someone went and removed all the serial numbers showing where they came from. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have no idea where those came from, so don't look at them. The Syrian government is also finding a whole lot of brand new grenades, sniper rifles, and rocket launchers that have English markings and seem like they were made in America, but those seem to have been manufactured without serial numbers at all. The USA has no idea where those came from, so don't look at us.
- Turkey has moved a bunch of military units to the Syrian border and told the Syrian government that if anybody else shoots over the border, Turkey will shoot them back. Now, even if Turkey wasn't in NATO (which they are) and Syria wasn't fighting a civil war (which they are), the Syrian military would get their asses run the fuck over if they tried to fight the Turkish military. So Turkey gets brownie points with the world for sheltering the innocent refugees (*giant air quotes*), as well as badass points with NATO for staring down the Syrian military.
Where things are going
At this point, there are too many weapons, too much money, and too many interests involved to hope for a graceful end of this mess. The Sunni rebels won't accept anything but the removal of the Alawites from power, and the Alawites won't accept giving up power for fear of retribution from the Sunnis. The rebels appear to be slowly gaining the upper hand due to continued defections from the Syrian military as well as their more numerous and more wealthy friends. It's uncertain if the rebels can actually win militarily, however, as every time they take control of territory, they become targets for government artillery and bombers. Since the rebels do not have artillery or bombers themselves, they seem to be hoping to just survive long enough to wear the government down.And that's why this shit is in the news right now.
